tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 22%

  1. 19:44 ILM → 21:17 DCA
    AA 5229 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 44% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:30 DCA → 23:59 BOS
    AA 4051 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 29m · 58% on time, 15.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (15.7% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 15mILM 19:44 to BOS 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.