tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Philadelphia via Wilmington: arrives on time 28%

  1. 13:00 DCA → 14:33 ILM
    AA 5237 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 33m · 64% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Wilmington (ILM) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:26 ILM → 17:10 PHL
    AA 6133 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 46m · 53% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 12mDCA 13:00 to PHL 17:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.