tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Miami via Washington: arrives on time 19%

  1. 15:16 ILM → 16:48 DCA
    AA 5237 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 37m · 43% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 DCA → 20:34 MIA
    AA 1612 · American · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 18mILM 15:16 to MIA 20:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.