tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → New York via Washington: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:16 ILM → 16:48 DCA
    AA 5237 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 37m · 43% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:19 DCA → 19:49 LGA
    AA 4702 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 51% on time, 12.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (12.7% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 33mILM 15:16 to LGA 19:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.