tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Madison via Philadelphia: arrives on time 54%

  1. 16:40 DCA → 17:47 PHL
    AA 5248 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 06m · 66% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 17m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 PHL → 21:41 MSN
    AA 5512 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 35m · 70% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 92 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 17m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 59mDCA 16:40 to MSN 21:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.