tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Philadelphia: arrives on time 53%

  1. 16:40 DCA → 17:47 PHL
    AA 5248 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 06m · 66% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 PHL → 21:11 XNA
    AA 5628 · American, flown by PSA · 3h 14m · 75% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 34mDCA 16:40 to XNA 21:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.