tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:35 JAX → 18:54 PHL
    AA 5248 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 54% on time, 6.3% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 PHL → 22:02 MSP
    AA 5460 · American, flown by PSA · 3h 12m · 70% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (6.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 27mJAX 16:35 to MSP 22:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.