tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Baltimore via Charlotte: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:49 MEM → 21:50 CLT
    AA 5269 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 67% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:14 BWI +1 day
    AA 1318 · American · 1h 29m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 25mMEM 18:49 to BWI 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.