tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:49 MEM → 21:50 CLT
    AA 5269 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 67% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:39 CLT → 00:01 ORD +1 day
    AA 3014 · American · 2h 22m · 65% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 12mMEM 18:49 to ORD 00:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.