tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Detroit via Charlotte: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:49 MEM → 21:50 CLT
    AA 5269 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 67% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:51 CLT → 00:41 DTW +1 day
    AA 370 · American · 1h 50m · 76% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 52mMEM 18:49 to DTW 00:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.