tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Nashville via Charlotte: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:49 MEM → 21:50 CLT
    AA 5269 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 67% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:17 CLT → 23:48 BNA
    AA 526 · American · 1h 31m · 71% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 59mMEM 18:49 to BNA 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.