tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Philadelphia via Knoxville: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:59 DCA → 17:48 TYS
    AA 5276 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 49m · 64% on time, 2.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Knoxville (TYS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:37 TYS → 20:39 PHL
    AA 5952 · American, flown by Piedmont · 2h 02m · 68% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.3% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 40mDCA 15:59 to PHL 20:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.