tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Charlotte via Philadelphia: arrives on time 60%

  1. 11:15 MEM → 14:40 PHL
    AA 5277 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 25m · 66% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:50 PHL → 17:53 CLT
    AA 2573 · American · 2h 03m · 85% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 38mMEM 11:15 to CLT 17:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.