tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 54%

  1. 17:16 MHT → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5285 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 59m · 66% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 DCA → 23:30 ORD
    AA 4419 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 14mMHT 17:16 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.