tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Charlotte via Washington: arrives on time 26%

  1. 12:05 MHT → 13:59 DCA
    AA 5290 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 56m · 41% on time, 11.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:23 DCA → 17:10 CLT
    AA 804 · American · 1h 47m · 48% on time, 13.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (11.1% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (13.8% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip5h 05mMHT 12:05 to CLT 17:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.