tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 25%

  1. 12:07 MHT → 14:36 CLT
    AA 5294 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 CLT → 16:46 ORD
    AA 2907 · American · 2h 21m · 51% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 39mMHT 12:07 to ORD 16:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.