tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Minneapolis via Charlotte: arrives on time 38%

  1. 16:11 MSN → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5307 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 CLT → 22:13 MSP
    AA 2176 · American · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 00mMSN 16:11 to MSP 22:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.