tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 33%

  1. 16:11 MSN → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5307 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 CLT → 21:53 PHX
    AA 2923 · American · 4h 18m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 42mMSN 16:11 to PHX 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.