tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Detroit via Charlotte: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:11 MSN → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5307 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:46 CLT → 22:34 DTW
    AA 419 · American · 1h 48m · 67% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 23mMSN 16:11 to DTW 22:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.