tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:11 MSN → 19:40 CLT
    AA 5307 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 29m · 62% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:27 CLT → 22:00 ORD
    AA 627 · American · 2h 33m · 61% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 49mMSN 16:11 to ORD 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.