tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Tampa via Washington: arrives on time 24%

  1. 11:19 MSP → 14:59 DCA
    AA 5311 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 40m · 65% on time, 7.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:46 DCA → 18:15 TPA
    AA 2773 · American · 2h 29m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (7.5% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip5h 56mMSP 11:19 to TPA 18:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.