tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Traverse City via Washington: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:30 MSP → 10:11 DCA
    AA 5312 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 41m · 87% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:20 DCA → 13:27 TVC
    AA 4138 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 07m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 57mMSP 06:30 to TVC 13:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.