tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Washington: arrives on time 59%

  1. 06:30 MSP → 10:11 DCA
    AA 5312 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 41m · 87% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:40 DCA → 13:08 LGA
    AA 4645 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 24m · 75% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 34mMSP 06:30 to LGA 13:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.