tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Philadelphia via Washington: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:07 ORF → 12:19 DCA
    AA 5336 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 12m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 DCA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 5474 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 08m · 65% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 31mORF 11:07 to PHL 14:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.