tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Norfolk: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:59 DCA → 17:12 ORF
    AA 5338 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 13m · 61% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Norfolk (ORF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:11 ORF → 19:48 LGA
    AA 4471 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 60% on time, 12.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (12.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip3h 49mDCA 15:59 to LGA 19:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.