tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → New York via Washington: arrives on time 16%

  1. 17:42 ORF → 18:55 DCA
    AA 5338 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 13m · 45% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:58 DCA → 21:30 JFK
    AA 4474 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 50% on time, 27.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (27.3% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip3h 48mORF 17:42 to JFK 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.