tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:24 ORF → 20:02 CLT
    AA 5339 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 38m · 60% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 CLT → 22:20 DCA
    AA 527 · American · 1h 31m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip3h 56mORF 18:24 to DCA 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.