tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 37%

  1. 16:44 DCA → 18:11 RDU
    AA 5347 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 27m · 47% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 52m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:03 RDU → 22:00 JFK
    AA 4417 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 57m · 57% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 67 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 52m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 16mDCA 16:44 to JFK 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.