tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 23%

  1. 16:44 DCA → 18:11 RDU
    AA 5347 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 27m · 47% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:12 RDU → 21:06 ORD
    AA 4492 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 58% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 22mDCA 16:44 to ORD 21:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.