tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Kansas City via Washington: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:41 RDU → 20:10 DCA
    AA 5347 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 27m · 37% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 DCA → 22:49 MCI
    AA 4694 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 50m · 67% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 08mRDU 18:41 to MCI 22:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.