tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Detroit via Washington: arrives on time 62%

  1. 05:33 ROC → 06:59 DCA
    AA 5351 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 93% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:50 DCA → 09:33 DTW
    AA 5516 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 43m · 79% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 00mROC 05:33 to DTW 09:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.