tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Tampa via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:56 RDU → 17:24 DCA
    AA 5367 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 43% on time, 14.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 DCA → 21:21 TPA
    AA 544 · American · 2h 27m · 59% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (14.3% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 22mRDU 15:56 to TPA 21:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.