tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → New York via Washington: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:56 RDU → 17:24 DCA
    AA 5367 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 43% on time, 14.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 DCA → 20:20 JFK
    AA 4336 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 76% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (14.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 24mRDU 15:56 to JFK 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.