tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:39 RIC → 17:05 CLT
    AA 5370 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 54% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:04 CLT → 19:33 IAD
    AA 2953 · American · 1h 29m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip3h 54mRIC 15:39 to IAD 19:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.