tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → New York via Charlotte: arrives on time 29%

  1. 15:39 RIC → 17:05 CLT
    AA 5370 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 26m · 54% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:02 CLT → 20:06 JFK
    AA 657 · American · 2h 04m · 58% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 27mRIC 15:39 to JFK 20:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.