tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:25 SDF → 20:23 PHL
    AA 5394 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 58m · 57% on time, 9.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHL → 23:59 PHX
    AA 2721 · American · 5h 09m · 72% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (9.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 34mSDF 18:25 to PHX 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.