tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:25 SDF → 20:23 PHL
    AA 5394 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 58m · 57% on time, 9.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:58 PHL → 00:15 ATL +1 day
    AA 443 · American · 2h 17m · 77% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (9.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 50mSDF 18:25 to ATL 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.