tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Newark via Charlotte: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:39 SDF → 17:24 CLT
    AA 5397 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:21 CLT → 20:30 EWR
    AA 1071 · American · 2h 09m · 68% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 51mSDF 15:39 to EWR 20:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.