tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 40%

  1. 15:39 SDF → 17:24 CLT
    AA 5397 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:23 CLT → 19:51 PHX
    AA 1073 · American · 4h 28m · 61% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 12mSDF 15:39 to PHX 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.