tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:39 SDF → 17:24 CLT
    AA 5397 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:22 CLT → 20:00 DCA
    AA 2386 · American · 1h 38m · 58% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 21mSDF 15:39 to DCA 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.