tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:39 SDF → 17:24 CLT
    AA 5397 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 12mSDF 15:39 to ORD 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.