tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 57%

  1. 15:39 SDF → 17:24 CLT
    AA 5397 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 CLT → 21:53 PHX
    AA 2923 · American · 4h 18m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip9h 14mSDF 15:39 to PHX 21:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.