tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Portland via Philadelphia: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:18 DCA → 18:32 PHL
    AA 5406 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 14m · 39% on time, 10.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 PHL → 21:46 PWM
    AA 1889 · American · 1h 36m · 68% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (10.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 28mDCA 17:18 to PWM 21:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.