tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Manchester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 66%

  1. 17:18 DCA → 18:32 PHL
    AA 5406 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 14m · 39% on time, 10.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 28m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:38 MHT
    AA 5966 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 163 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 28m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (10.2% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 20mDCA 17:18 to MHT 23:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.