tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 52%

  1. 17:18 DCA → 18:32 PHL
    AA 5406 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 14m · 39% on time, 10.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 06m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDF
    AA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 06m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (10.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 45mDCA 17:18 to SDF 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.