tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Providence via Washington: arrives on time 12%

  1. 17:46 MSP → 21:27 DCA
    AA 5416 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 41m · 39% on time, 12.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:28 DCA → 23:59 PVD
    AA 5017 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 31m · 56% on time, 38.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (12.5% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (38.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 13mMSP 17:46 to PVD 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.