tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Orlando via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:49 TUL → 17:13 DFW
    AA 5420 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 24m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 DFW → 22:20 MCO
    AA 2186 · American · 2h 47m · 46% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip5h 28mTUL 15:49 to MCO 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.