tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Memphis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:26 DTW → 18:15 PHL
    AA 5427 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 49m · 48% on time, 10.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:05 PHL → 21:00 MEM
    AA 5415 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 55m · 66% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (10.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 34mDTW 16:26 to MEM 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.