tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Valparaiso → Baltimore via Charlotte: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:37 VPS → 21:34 CLT
    AA 5439 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 57m · 48% on time, 10.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:14 BWI +1 day
    AA 1318 · American · 1h 29m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 37mVPS 18:37 to BWI 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.