tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:46 BHM → 20:59 DCA
    AA 5452 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 13m · 47% on time, 17.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 DCA → 23:30 ORD
    AA 4419 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 75% on time, 10.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (17.7% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (10.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 44mBHM 17:46 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.